Basic Retirement Withdrawal Success Calculator
This free calculator helps you estimate your retirement portfolio’s probability of lasting through a 30-year retirement period using the well-known 4% rule as a benchmark. Simply adjust your annual withdrawal rate and asset allocation mix to see how different strategies affect your success rate — the likelihood that your savings will sustain your income needs without running out. The simulation uses historical market data to provide confidence levels ranging from High (95–100%), Medium (40–94%), and Low (0–39%), helping you visualize how changing your withdrawal percentage or investment mix impacts your long-term financial security.
❓ FAQ Section
What does the 4% rule mean in retirement planning?
The 4% rule suggests you can withdraw 4% of your retirement savings each year (adjusted for inflation) and have a high probability that your portfolio will last 30 years.
How is the success rate calculated in this tool?
The success rate is based on historical market performance simulations, showing the percentage of 30-year periods where your selected withdrawal rate and portfolio mix would have sustained your income needs without depleting your savings.
Why does my success rate drop when I increase my withdrawal percentage?
Higher withdrawal rates put more strain on your portfolio, leaving less invested capital to grow and recover during market downturns, which increases the risk of running out of money.
What is the ideal asset allocation for a sustainable retirement?
While there’s no universal answer, many retirees find a 60% stocks / 40% bonds mix balances growth and stability. You can adjust the ratio in this calculator to test different outcomes.
Can I rely on this calculator for my personal retirement plan?
This tool provides general estimates based on historical data, not personalized advice. Results may vary depending on your actual market returns, taxes, expenses, and individual circumstances. Always consult a fiduciary advisor before making financial decisions.
Disclaimer: For Educational Purposes Only
The information, tools, and calculators available on The Retirement Dilemma website are provided exclusively for educational and informational purposes. Their goal is to help you better understand how various retirement income strategies, such as withdrawal rates, investment allocations, and portfolio sustainability, may align with your long-term financial goals. This material should not be considered financial, legal, or tax advice.
All content is developed and reviewed by retirement planning professionals with decades of combined experience in wealth management, portfolio analysis, and retirement income design. However, every financial situation is unique. We strongly encourage you to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or fiduciary planner before making any retirement-related decisions.
To ensure accuracy and reliability, our educational content references well-established, nationally recognized sources, including Morningstar, Fidelity, Vanguard, and other respected organizations specializing in retirement research.
Our mission is to provide unbiased, transparent, and practical education to empower you to make informed and confident decisions about your financial future.
